Toronto real estate prices are rising, but most of the beefy gains are due to one segment. Statistics Canada (Stat Can) updated its new Residential property price index for Q3 2019. The Toronto index shows condo prices are rising much faster than house prices. It also tells us that resale prices are rising much faster than new build homes.

Toronto Real Estate Prices Are Up 2.75% From Last Year

Toronto real estate prices have been on a tear, but not all segments are created equal. Home prices increased 0.58% in Q3 2019, up 2.75% from the same quarter last year. Prices have increased 9.76% from Q1 2017, when the index starts. Breaking this down, we see new build homes are a completely different market from resales.

Toronto Residential Property Price Index

A Toronto home price index, including both new builds and resale.

New build real estate barely moved from last year, but made a modest increase over the past three years. New build prices are down 1.16% in Q3 2019, leaving prices up just 0.29% from a year before. Prices are up 5.24% from Q1 2017 – a decent gain, but not quite the overheated market everyone talks about. So what’s everyone talking about? Resale prices.

Toronto real estate being resold has been growing almost twice as fast as new builds. The price of a resale home is up 1.44% in Q3 2019, up 3.93% from the same quarter last year. Prices are up 11.96% from the start of the index in 2017. New builds aren’t rising in price nearly as quickly as resale homes.

Toronto House Price Growth Weighed By New Construction

Toronto single-family homes aren’t close to cheap, but they’re underperforming the index. House prices increased 0.90% in Q3 2019, bringing price up 1.82% from a year before. Prices are now up 4.90% from Q1 2017, so about half the pace of growth as the general market. Drilling down in this segment, we see new builds are where the drag on the index occurred.