Toronto Detached Real Estate Sales Rise, But Still Below The 10 Year Trend

Toronto’s detached real estate market is performing better than last year, but that doesn’t say much. Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) numbers show detached sales improved in October. The improvement isn’t as exciting when you realize sales are still below the 10 year trend. As for prices? They are basically retracing last year’s movements, give or take a couple points.

Greater Toronto Detached Prices Fall Less Than A Point

The price of a detached home fell across Greater Toronto, but increased in the city. TREB reported the price of a typical detached home reach $914,500 in October, down 0.73% from last year. In the City of Toronto it reached $1,109,300, up 1.94% from last year. The suburbs are falling, while growth in the city is still below inflation.

Toronto Detached Benchmark Price

The price of a typical detached home across the Toronto Real Estate Board, in Canadian dollars.

Month TREB City of Toronto
Jan 2014 594,600 730,000
Feb 2014 601,300 737,800
Mar 2014 609,800 750,000
Apr 2014 617,300 759,500
May 2014 622,800 768,600
Jun 2014 628,800 773,800
Jul 2014 631,400 774,700
Aug 2014 631,000 770,800
Sep 2014 632,100 769,100
Oct 2014 637,300 774,300
Nov 2014 640,300 782,100
Dec 2014 642,900 785,100
Jan 2015 645,200 787,300
Feb 2015 654,900 794,300
Mar 2015 666,800 808,100
Apr 2015 678,300 823,300
May 2015 687,600 834,200
Jun 2015 695,400 838,900
Jul 2015 700,600 843,300
Aug 2015 704,400 845,000
Sep 2015 708,100 852,800
Oct 2015 712,200 855,800
Nov 2015 714,800 859,700
Dec 2015 717,800 864,100
Jan 2016 728,900 876,300
Feb 2016 739,000 878,000
Mar 2016 754,200 897,600
Apr 2016 776,900 924,000
May 2016 808,600 961,300
Jun 2016 826,400 982,100
Jul 2016 836,900 988,600
Aug 2016 845,000 991,200
Sep 2016 855,500 999,900
Oct 2016 872,600 1,020,300
Nov 2016 878,900 1,031,500
Dec 2016 885,600 1,038,900
Jan 2017 907,100 1,076,300
Feb 2017 936,600 1,105,700
Mar 2017 992,700 1,171,900
Apr 2017 1,042,100 1,226,300
May 2017 1,049,500 1,228,500
Jun 2017 1,027,200 1,205,400
Jul 2017 963,900 1,146,100
Aug 2017 936,100 1,100,100
Sep 2017 930,500 1,093,900
Oct 2017 921,200 1,088,200
Nov 2017 915,600 1,088,200
Dec 2017 909,300 1,085,100
Jan 2018 907,100 1,080,800
Feb 2018 915,300 1,090,000
Mar 2018 924,900 1,100,500
Apr 2018 927,800 1,109,700
May 2018 934,100 1,123,800
Jun 2018 931,600 1,119,400
Jul 2018 923,800 1,112,800
Aug 2018 914,900 1,100,500
Sep 2018 914,200 1,105,300
Oct 2018 914,500 1,109,300

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

Both in the city and in the suburbs, price growth improved. Across TREB, the 0.73% decline is the smallest its been since January 2018. The City of Toronto printed its third positive gain, making it the highest growth we’ve seen since 2017. Worth mentioning that prices are making a textbook retrace of the previous price arc. The City of Toronto is slightly above, but not enough to say we’re in the clear.

Toronto Detached Benchmark Percent Change

The 12 month percent change of a typical detached home across the Toronto Real Estate Board.

Month TREB City of Toronto
Jan 2015 8.51 7.85
Feb 2015 8.91 7.66
Mar 2015 9.35 7.75
Apr 2015 9.88 8.4
May 2015 10.4 8.53
Jun 2015 10.59 8.41
Jul 2015 10.96 8.86
Aug 2015 11.63 9.63
Sep 2015 12.02 10.88
Oct 2015 11.75 10.53
Nov 2015 11.64 9.92
Dec 2015 11.65 10.06
Jan 2016 12.97 11.3
Feb 2016 12.84 10.54
Mar 2016 13.11 11.08
Apr 2016 14.54 12.23
May 2016 17.6 15.24
Jun 2016 18.84 17.07
Jul 2016 19.45 17.23
Aug 2016 19.96 17.3
Sep 2016 20.82 17.25
Oct 2016 22.52 19.22
Nov 2016 22.96 19.98
Dec 2016 23.38 20.23
Jan 2017 24.45 22.82
Feb 2017 26.74 25.93
Mar 2017 31.62 30.56
Apr 2017 34.14 32.72
May 2017 29.79 27.8
Jun 2017 24.3 22.74
Jul 2017 15.18 15.93
Aug 2017 10.78 10.99
Sep 2017 8.77 9.4
Oct 2017 5.57 6.65
Nov 2017 4.18 5.5
Dec 2017 2.68 4.45
Jan 2018 0 0.42
Feb 2018 -2.27 -1.42
Mar 2018 -6.83 -6.09
Apr 2018 -10.97 -9.51
May 2018 -11 -8.52
Jun 2018 -9.31 -7.13
Jul 2018 -4.16 -2.91
Aug 2018 -2.26 0.04
Sep 2018 -1.75 1.04
Oct 2018 -0.73 1.94

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

The median sale price of a detached home improved, due to an increase in luxury. TREB reported a median sale price of $850,000 in October, up 1.19% from last year. The City of Toronto reported a median sale price of $1,050,000, up 5% from last year. The increase is largely due to an increase in homes over $2 million, which is up 8% compared to the same month last year. Remember, medians aren’t helpful for determining how much prices will reach. Instead, use them as an indicator of dollar flow.

Toronto Detached Average Sale Price

The average sale price of a detached house in the Toronto Real Estate Board.

Month TREB 416 905
Oct 2015 823,177 1,071,394 734,745
Nov 2015 829,241 1,018,621 762,326
Dec 2015 825,470 1,039,638 747,229
Jan 2016 848,999 1,061,789 783,565
Feb 2016 909,761 1,211,459 816,705
Mar 2016 910,375 1,174,358 837,217
Apr 2016 968,437 1,257,958 881,413
May 2016 986,691 1,285,693 891,870
Jun 2016 979,445 1,259,486 892,747
Jul 2016 952,983 1,202,753 888,565
Aug 2016 964,002 1,206,637 905,610
Sep 2016 1,013,788 1,294,482 928,414
Oct 2016 1,034,077 1,303,339 948,191
Nov 2016 1,058,273 1,345,962 957,517
Dec 2016 1,016,145 1,286,605 934,055
Jan 2017 1,068,670 1,336,640 999,102
Feb 2017 1,205,815 1,573,622 1,106,201
Mar 2017 1,214,422 1,561,780 1,124,088
Apr 2017 1,205,262 1,578,542 1,098,827
May 2017 1,141,041 1,503,868 1,025,893
Jun 2017 1,055,863 1,386,524 948,099
Jul 2017 1,000,336 1,304,288 910,348
Aug 2017 968,494 1,191,052 906,592
Sep 2017 1,015,067 1,355,234 912,921
Oct 2017 1,008,207 1,287,765 910,488
Nov 2017 996,527 1,276,184 898,605
Dec 2017 989,870 1,250,235 910,216
Jan 2018 970,823 1,283,981 879,048
Feb 2018 1,000,736 1,282,240 911,065
Mar 2018 1,005,779 1,293,903 921,515
Apr 2018 1,030,103 1,354,719 929,092
May 2018 1,045,553 1,426,094 929,401
Jun 2018 1,033,574 1,354,429 928,560
Jul 2018 1,004,647 1,350,700 907,347
Aug 2018 977,187 1,244,275 907,780
Sep 2018 1,008,361 1,342,363 905,722
Oct 2018 1,019,416 1,311,265 914,179

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

Greater Toronto Average Detached Sale Price Rises By 1%

The average sale price of a detached home saw mild improvement. TREB reported an average sale of $1,019,416 in October, up 1% from last year. The City of Toronto saw an average of $1,311,265, up 1.4% from last year. Both numbers did improve, but once again saw improvements below target inflation.

Toronto Detached Average Sale Price Change

The 12 month percent change of average sale price across across TREB.

Month 12 Month Change
Jan 2016 18.55
Feb 2016 16.31
Mar 2016 15.62
Apr 2016 18.94
May 2016 18.91
Jun 2016 19.94
Jul 2016 21
Aug 2016 21.7
Sep 2016 23.65
Oct 2016 25.62
Nov 2016 27.62
Dec 2016 23.1
Jan 2017 25.87
Feb 2017 32.54
Mar 2017 33.4
Apr 2017 24.45
May 2017 15.64
Jun 2017 7.8
Jul 2017 4.97
Aug 2017 0.47
Sep 2017 0.13
Oct 2017 -2.5
Nov 2017 -5.8
Dec 2017 -2.59
Jan 2018 -9.1
Feb 2018 -17.2
Mar 2018 -17.1
Apr 2018 -14.4
May 2018 -8.2
Jun 2018 -1.9
Jul 2018 0.5
Aug 2018 1.2
Sep 2018 -0.6
Oct 2018 1

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

Greater Toronto Detached Real Estate Sales Rise Over 7%

Toronto is seeing detached sales improve from last year. TREB reported 3,328 detached sales in October, up 7.1% from last year. The City of Toronto represented 882 of those sales, up 10.1% from last year. Those are huge improvements, but it’s worth remembering last year’s sales were historic lows. Detached sales are still 25% below the 2016 number, and 8.25% below the 10 year average. Sales are improving, but they’re still in line with major policy change or recession numbers.

Toronto Detached Sales Vs. New Listings

The total number of detached sales, compared to the number of new detached listings per month.

Month Sales New Listings
Oct 2015 4,100 6,299
Nov 2015 3,451 4,153
Dec 2015 2,134 1,980
Jan 2016 2,109 3,822
Feb 2016 3,627 5,165
Mar 2016 4,954 7,029
Apr 2016 6,062 7,805
May 2016 6,500 8,554
Jun 2016 6,307 8,432
Jul 2016 4,653 6,347
Aug 2016 4,449 5,803
Sep 2016 4,708 7,659
Oct 2016 4,499 6,767
Nov 2016 3,890 5,109
Dec 2016 2,259 1,736
Jan 2017 2,261 3,244
Feb 2017 3,721 4,825
Mar 2017 5,887 9,012
Apr 2017 5,715 11,863
May 2017 4,757 14,036
Jun 2017 3,450 10,263
Jul 2017 2,434 6,989
Aug 2017 2,578 5,697
Sep 2017 2,780 9,009
Oct 2017 3,135 7,849
Nov 2017 3,131 7,420
Dec 2017 1,938 3,046
Jan 2018 1,659 4,375
Feb 2018 2,169 5,556
Mar 2018 3,120 8,011
Apr 2018 3,451 8,578
May 2018 3,344 10,208
Jun 2018 3,589 8,417
Jul 2018 3,062 7,088
Aug 2018 3,001 6,167
Sep 2018 2,829 8,727
Oct 2018 3,328 7,606

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

Greater Toronto Detached Inventory Is Up Over 4%

The number of new listings for detached homes is falling in the burbs, but higher in the city. TREB reported 7,606 new listings in October, down 3% from last year. The City of Toronto represented 1,857 of those new listings, up 5.63% from last year. Even though listings across TREB fell, both regions saw higher inventory.

The total number of active listings increased across Greater Toronto. TREB reported 11,473 active detached listings in October, up 4.26% from last year. The City of Toronto represented 2,293 of those listings, up 4.51% from last year. The increase in inventory is almost double what the market saw in 2016.

Toronto Active Detached Listings

The total number of detached listings available.

Month Active Listings
Sep 2015 8,042
Oct 2015 7,349
Nov 2015 5,777
Dec 2015 3,644
Jan 2016 3,912
Feb 2016 4,363
Mar 2016 4,970
Apr 2016 5,089
May 2016 5,303
Jun 2016 5,144
Jul 2016 4,762
Aug 2016 4,237
Sep 2016 5,279
Oct 2016 5,211
Nov 2016 4,296
Dec 2016 2,224
Jan 2017 2,306
Feb 2017 2,624
Mar 2017 4,347
Apr 2017 7,458
May 2017 10,654
Jun 2017 11,245
Jul 2017 10,497
Aug 2017 9,215
Sep 2017 11,048
Oct 2017 11,004
Nov 2017 10,600
Dec 2017 7,508
Jan 2018 6,819
Feb 2018 7,852
Mar 2018 9,651
Apr 2018 10,956
May 2018 12,505
Jun 2018 12,489
Jul 2018 11,662
Aug 2018 10,563
Sep 2018 12,042
Oct 2018 11,473

Source: TREB, Better Dwelling.

Toronto’s detached market has improved from last year, but not enough to declare a new uptrend. Sales are higher than last year, but they’re well below the 10 year average. As for prices, they’re either just over or under a complete retrace from last year, which isn’t all that encouraging.