Is the Canadian real estate industry too big to fail? Maybe. It just depends on how you define failure.

While RBC has said that homes sales in Canada could drop as much as 30% this year, they’ve also said they believe there is a “low risk” of a full market collapse.  Similarly, RE/MAX has also suggested the odds of the country’s real estate bubble being burst are low.

And now it’s Royal LePage’s turn.

The real estate giant has released both its quarterly Canadian House Price Survey and Market Survey Forecast today, predicting different scenarios depending on the length of the COVID-19 lockdown.

That said, the overall belief from Royal LePage is that “the aggregate price of a home in Canada is expected to remain remarkably stable through the COVID-19 pandemic.”

Just how stable prices remain depends on how long the current states of emergency last throughout the country, and how long the resulting social distancing and stay-at-home restrictions are in place. Not to mention the economic consequences currently being felt by millions of Canadians.

If the measures currently in place across the country are lifted before the end of the second quarter, Royal LePage is forecasting that overall prices for Canadian homes will end 2020 relatively flat, with the aggregate value up 1% year-over-year to $653,800. If, however, COVID-19 restrictions remain in effect throughout the summer, this could drive home prices down by 3% year-over-year to $627,900. Essentially, the average difference between a quick reprieve from current measures and a longer lockdown is about $26,000.