Canadian real estate sales are still dropping. Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) numbers show home sales falling in November. Last month, only three major real estate markets saw increase on a year over year basis. The rest saw declines, especially in major markets like Vancouver – which led the way lower.

Canadian Real Estate Sales Drop Over 12%

Canadian real estate sales are still falling, and fast. CREA reported 33,318 sales in November, down 15.25% from the month before. Sales across the country are now down 12.54%, when compared to the same month last year. The decline is the eleventh consecutive month for declines, and is likely to continue.

Canadian Real Estate Sales

The unadjusted sales for all home types, as reported through the Canadian MLS.

Month	Sales
Jan 2015	23,289
Feb 2015	32,898
Mar 2015	45,527
Apr 2015	52,982
May 2015	56,545
Jun 2015	57,380
Jul 2015	50,036
Aug 2015	43,103
Sep 2015	42,615
Oct 2015	41,981
Nov 2015	36,846
Dec 2015	27,488
Jan 2016	25,292
Feb 2016	38,856
Mar 2016	50,773
Apr 2016	58,106
May 2016	61,412
Jun 2016	60,132
Jul 2016	48,577
Aug 2016	47,419
Sep 2016	44,332
Oct 2016	42,537
Nov 2016	37,178
Dec 2016	26,158
Jan 2017	25,534
Feb 2017	37,754
Mar 2017	54,290
Apr 2017	53,796
May 2017	60,594
Jun 2017	53,344
Jul 2017	42,599
Aug 2017	42,769
Sep 2017	39,446
Oct 2017	40,691
Nov 2017	38,095
Dec 2017	27,206
Jan 2018	24,931
Feb 2018	31,356
Mar 2018	41,983
Apr 2018	46,344
May 2018	50,640
Jun 2018	47,413
Jul 2018	41,872
Aug 2018	41,151
Sep 2018	35,939
Oct 2018	39,313
Nov 2018	33,318

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

The growth of Canadian real estate sales have been trending lower for years. Last month was the slowest November since 2013, and the largest annual decline since 2008. Sales have continued to trend lower from peak growth seen in February 2016. Maybe Santa will give everyone a condo for Christmas.

Canadian Real Estate Sales Change

The annual percent chage of unadjusted sales for all home types, as reported through the Canadian MLS.

Month	Unadjusted
Jan 2008	-8.57
Feb 2008	-8.78
Mar 2008	-18.94
Apr 2008	-7.04
May 2008	-17.41
Jun 2008	-15.35
Jul 2008	-12.25
Aug 2008	-20.83
Sep 2008	-3.49
Oct 2008	-27.27
Nov 2008	-42.32
Dec 2008	-32.86
Jan 2009	-40.51
Feb 2009	-31.47
Mar 2009	-13.97
Apr 2009	-11.58
May 2009	-0.86
Jun 2009	17.67
Jul 2009	18.69
Aug 2009	18.69
Sep 2009	17.31
Oct 2009	41.73
Nov 2009	72.75
Dec 2009	72.65
Jan 2010	56.26
Feb 2010	44.22
Mar 2010	40.3
Apr 2010	20.4
May 2010	-4.63
Jun 2010	-19.88
Jul 2010	-29.98
Aug 2010	-19.85
Sep 2010	-19.97
Oct 2010	-21.62
Nov 2010	-9.66
Dec 2010	-14.63
Jan 2011	-6.21
Feb 2011	-5.53
Mar 2011	-6.41
Apr 2011	-14.69
May 2011	2.72
Jun 2011	11.2
Jul 2011	12.66
Aug 2011	16.12
Sep 2011	11.73
Oct 2011	9.03
Nov 2011	5.52
Dec 2011	4.76
Jan 2012	4
Feb 2012	8.66
Mar 2012	1.34
Apr 2012	10.99
May 2012	8.72
Jun 2012	-4.71
Jul 2012	2.43
Aug 2012	-8.87
Sep 2012	-15.13
Oct 2012	-0.86
Nov 2012	-12.08
Dec 2012	-17.59
Jan 2013	-6.09
Feb 2013	-16.81
Mar 2013	-15.11
Apr 2013	-3.36
May 2013	-2.61
Jun 2013	-0.55
Jul 2013	9.59
Aug 2013	11.35
Sep 2013	17.74
Oct 2013	8.09
Nov 2013	5.83
Dec 2013	12.27
Jan 2014	0.64
Feb 2014	3.2
Mar 2014	4.88
Apr 2014	0.35
May 2014	5.46
Jun 2014	11.53
Jul 2014	8.1
Aug 2014	2.32
Sep 2014	11.13
Oct 2014	7.57
Nov 2014	3.12
Dec 2014	8.61
Jan 2015	-1.97
Feb 2015	2.67
Mar 2015	9.14
Apr 2015	9.9
May 2015	3.36
Jun 2015	10.96
Jul 2015	3.56
Aug 2015	3.93
Sep 2015	0.31
Oct 2015	0.33
Nov 2015	10.38
Dec 2015	10.26
Jan 2016	8.6
Feb 2016	18.11
Mar 2016	11.52
Apr 2016	9.67
May 2016	8.61
Jun 2016	4.8
Jul 2016	-2.92
Aug 2016	10.01
Sep 2016	4.03
Oct 2016	1.32
Nov 2016	0.9
Dec 2016	-4.84
Jan 2017	0.96
Feb 2017	-2.84
Mar 2017	6.93
Apr 2017	-7.42
May 2017	-1.33
Jun 2017	-11.29
Jul 2017	-12.31
Aug 2017	-9.81
Sep 2017	-11.02
Oct 2017	-4.34
Nov 2017	2.47
Dec 2017	4.01
Jan 2018	-2.36
Feb 2018	-16.95
Mar 2018	-22.67
Apr 2018	-13.85
May 2018	-16.43
Jun 2018	-11.12
Jul 2018	-1.71
Aug 2018	-3.78
Sep 2018	-8.89
Oct 2018	-3.38
Nov 2018	-12.54

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

Quebec, London, and Montreal Real Estate See Biggest Gains

The markets with the largest gains for November were Quebec City, London, and Montreal. Quebec City reported 611 sales in November, up 18.2% – the largest jump in the country. London followed with 737 sales, up 6.3% from last year. Montreal came in third with 3,630 sales, up 6.1% from last year. By the way, these weren’t just the three with the biggest gains. They are the only major markets with a gain to report.

Canadian Real Estate Sales By Market

Canadian real estate sales in markets with more than 500 sales in 2017.

Nov 2017Nov 2018

City	Nov 2017	Nov 2018
Toronto	7,374	6,251
Montreal	3,421	3,630
Vancouver	2,831	1,633
Calgary	1,742	1,458
Edmonton	1,355	1,249
Ottawa	1,260	1,186
Fraser Valley	1,641	977
Hamilton-Burlington	1,040	862
Winnipeg	810	807
London	693	737
Quebec	517	611
Windsor-Essex	521	480
Victoria	629	476

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

Vancouver, Fraser Valley, and Victoria Real Estate See Biggest Losses

The biggest losses were all found in British Columbia last month. Vancouver saw 1,633 sales in November, a decline of 42.3% from last year – the largest in the country. Fraser Valley reported 977 sales, down 40.5% from last year. Victoria came in third with 476 sales, a decline of 24.3%. Toronto was somewhere in the middle of the list with 6,251 sales in November, a decline of 15.2% from last year.

Canadian Real Estate Sales Change By Market

The percent change in Canadian real estate sales, in markets with more than 500 sales in 2017.

Change

City	Change
Quebec	18.2
London	6.3
Montreal	6.1
Winnipeg	-0.4
Ottawa	-5.9
Edmonton	-7.8
Windsor-Essex	-7.9
Toronto	-15.2
Calgary	-16.3
Hamilton-Burlington	-17.1
Victoria	-24.3
Fraser Valley	-40.5
Vancouver	-42.3

Source: CREA, Better Dwelling.

All but three major Canadian real estate markets saw declining annual growth. This trend isn’t just a one month issue either, but we’ve seen consistently for most of 2018. Out of the two markets that did grow, two of them saw relatively small numbers. Is there a near term catalyst to reverse this trend?